Hatim El Jazouli
RFormal methods,PPoetry,FForecasting,NNotes,QSide quests
- Entries
- 34
- Tracings
- 20
- Crossing class
- 10
- Last accession
- 2026-10-14
Casablanca · Email · Substack · GitHub · LinkedIn · Metaculus · X
| From class, to class | RFORMAL METHODS | PPOETRY | FFORECASTING | NNOTES | QSIDE QUESTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFORMAL METHODS | · | · | 1 | · | · |
| PPOETRY | · | · | · | 3 | · |
| FFORECASTING | · | · | 2 | 1 | · |
| NNOTES | 1 | · | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| QSIDE QUESTS | · | · | · | 1 | · |
See also
Red string between drawers. 10 of 10 come with a note.
- F104Viva connects to N106The Noise is the System
Viva is built on the essay's point that you only learn where you stand from contact with reality. Here that means running the code instead of asking a model.
- N108Steeped in Paradoxes connects to F101Ensemble AI forecasting bot
The VAR argument is the one I care about in forecasting too: random error averages out, systematic bias does not.
- N107Calibrated Exposure connects to Q101Hull Tactical market prediction
The essay says I finally started building market models. This is one of them.
- Q102Protein function prediction for CAFA 6 connects to N107Calibrated Exposure
The essay explains why I left bioinformatics. CAFA 6 is where I came back to it with different tools.
- N105Why I’m interested in AI safety connects to R101Context Tree Switching implementation
AIXI is a mathematical model of an ideal agent. Implementing one of its building blocks was my way into the theory behind the systems this essay worries about.
- N105Why I’m interested in AI safety connects to F103Intelligence Workbench
The essay ends with wanting to help people understand and forecast AI behavior. The workbench gathers the evidence and leaves the judgment to the forecaster.
- R101Context Tree Switching implementation connects to F101Ensemble AI forecasting bot
Both combine many predictors instead of trusting one. CTS mixes context models as data arrives; the bot combines forecasts from different personas.
- P118Clean as Vile connects to N107Calibrated Exposure
The poem sits in the murk waiting for an epiphany. The essay ends by refusing to wait: act before understanding is complete.
- P117Nods in Hays connects to N106The Noise is the System
The poem asks the noisy world for a tranquil mind. Three years later the essay stops asking: the noise is the sound of the system working.
- P116Nuit de suie connects to N102B
The poem writes through the ennui that follows a black night. Two years later B takes the other exit: sleep as escape.
Recent accessions
The seven newest. Older cards stay in their drawers. Know a call number? Punch it in above.
Viva
Forecasting. — 2026-09-26.
An oral-style exam generated from a student's own JavaScript: predict what small mutations of the code return, say how sure you are, and be graded by running the code.
TracingsI.N106Viva is built on the essay's point that you only learn where you stand from contact with reality. Here that means running the code instead of asking a model.
Intelligence Workbench
Forecasting. — 2026-09-23.
A Rust and Python service that turns a research question into a sourced, as-of-queryable evidence graph and an analytical briefing that never forecasts.
Tracingsnone recorded
Betomcat
Forecasting. — 2026-09-21.
A Metaculus forecasting bot, forked from the Metaculus bot template, that researches each question through the Intelligence Workbench and forecasts it with two models drawn from a pool.
TracingsI.F103The workbench is built to feed this bot: it gathers and grades the evidence, the bot makes the forecast.II.F101
Exert, the Pursuit
Notes. — 2026-06-29.
On agency.
TracingsI.N106The same argument in two registers: competence comes from contact, one step or one closed loop at a time.
Steeped in Paradoxes
Notes. — 2026-03-31.
On football
TracingsI.F101The VAR argument is the one I care about in forecasting too: random error averages out, systematic bias does not.
Calibrated Exposure
Notes. — 2026-03-24.
On excavation
TracingsI.N108This essay ends by choosing football analytics. A week later, this is what that interest sounds like on the page.II.Q101The essay says I finally started building market models. This is one of them.
The Noise is the System
Notes. — 2026-02-10.
On exposure.
TracingsI.N107The next essay takes the same word, exposure, and turns it on the past instead of on work.