Hatim El JazouliCatalog
  1. F103

    Calibration review, second quarter

    Forecasting. — 2026-07-06. — Provisional.

    Ninety-one resolved questions. Overconfident in the eighty-to-ninety band, and the reason is not what I assumed.

    TracingsI.N102II.F102

  2. F102

    Forecasting my own projects

    Forecasting. — 2026-04-11. — Provisional.

    I am worse at predicting my own shipping dates than at predicting elections, and the error has a signature.

    TracingsI.N101II.N103

  3. F101

    Resolution criteria are the question

    Forecasting. — 2025-12-08. — Provisional.

    Most disagreement about a forecast turns out to be disagreement about what would count as it happening.

    TracingsI.R102II.N102