FORECASTING
4 cards in here, 1 red string leading out.
Viva
Forecasting. — 2026-09-26.
An oral-style exam generated from a student's own JavaScript: predict what small mutations of the code return, say how sure you are, and be graded by running the code.
TracingsI.N106Viva is built on the essay's point that you only learn where you stand from contact with reality. Here that means running the code instead of asking a model.
Intelligence Workbench
Forecasting. — 2026-09-23.
A Rust and Python service that turns a research question into a sourced, as-of-queryable evidence graph and an analytical briefing that never forecasts.
Tracingsnone recorded
Betomcat
Forecasting. — 2026-09-21.
A Metaculus forecasting bot, forked from the Metaculus bot template, that researches each question through the Intelligence Workbench and forecasts it with two models drawn from a pool.
TracingsI.F103The workbench is built to feed this bot: it gathers and grades the evidence, the bot makes the forecast.II.F101
Ensemble AI forecasting bot
Forecasting. — c. 2025.
An ensemble of language-model forecasters, each simulating a different expert persona, that generates judgmental forecasts.
Tracingsnone recorded