NOTES
9 cards in here, 4 red strings leading out.
Exert, the Pursuit
Notes. — 2026-06-29.
On agency.
TracingsI.N106The same argument in two registers: competence comes from contact, one step or one closed loop at a time.
Steeped in Paradoxes
Notes. — 2026-03-31.
On football
TracingsI.F101The VAR argument is the one I care about in forecasting too: random error averages out, systematic bias does not.
Calibrated Exposure
Notes. — 2026-03-24.
On excavation
TracingsI.N108This essay ends by choosing football analytics. A week later, this is what that interest sounds like on the page.II.Q101The essay says I finally started building market models. This is one of them.
The Noise is the System
Notes. — 2026-02-10.
On exposure.
TracingsI.N107The next essay takes the same word, exposure, and turns it on the past instead of on work.
Why I’m interested in AI safety
Notes. — 2025-10-22.
How my journey began.
TracingsI.N101A was written while I was taking the AI Safety, Ethics and Society course. This essay explains how I got there.II.R101AIXI is a mathematical model of an ideal agent. Implementing one of its building blocks was my way into the theory behind the systems this essay worries about.III.F103The essay ends with wanting to help people understand and forecast AI behavior. The workbench gathers the evidence and leaves the judgment to the forecaster.