Ensemble AI forecasting bot
Forecasting. — c. 2025. — 0 tracings.
An ensemble of language-model forecasters, each simulating a different expert persona, that generates judgmental forecasts.
An ensemble forecasting bot built on large language models. Each member simulates a different expert persona, and together they generate judgmental forecasts.
The bot combines the diverse personas into scored, judgmental predictions.
Built with: Python, LiteLLM, OpenRouter, AskNews.
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- R101Context Tree Switching implementationFormal methods
Both combine many predictors instead of trusting one. CTS mixes context models as data arrives; the bot combines forecasts from different personas.
- F102BetomcatForecasting
- N108Steeped in ParadoxesNotes
The VAR argument is the one I care about in forecasting too: random error averages out, systematic bias does not.